|2019/1/16 14:33||Green Car Congress||
BloombergNEF expects 40% growth in global EV sales in 2019; 2.6M vehicles, 1.5M in China
BloombergNEF (BNEF) expects 2.6 million electric vehicles to be sold globally in 2019. This will represent around a 40% growth rate, down from the 70% growth rate in 2018. BNEF said that it expects China will continue to lead, with some 1.5 million units—around 57% of the global market.
China’s market is in transition, and the recent annual doubling of sales every year looks unlikely to hold in 2019. We expect subsidies to be cut in February, but with a phase-out period that lasts until the end of 2Q. The ‘New Energy Vehicle’ quota takes effect this year but the requirements for 2019 are relatively modest. Broader macroeconomic factors (higher interest rates and slowing consumer spending) will also impact global sales. In markets like the US and the UK, direct purchase subsidies are already starting to wind down.
—Colin McKerracher, BNEFhead of advanced transport
BNEF expects European EV sales to come in just under 500,000 units, with strong growth in the Nordics and in Germany. Sales in Italy have been slow but should start picking up in 2019, while sales in the UK will likely be flat or declining after the government eliminated support for popular plug-in hybrid models.
BNEF expects North America sales to come in around 425,000 units, up modestly from 405,000. The Tesla Model 3 surge boosted 2H 2018 sales but the momentum will be difficult to maintain unless a lower-cost model can be introduced quickly, BNEF said.
Sales in Japan and South Korea combined should be around 100,000.
The mini-forecast was part of “Transition in Energy, Transport – 10 Predictions for 2019”.
|2019/1/16 11:30||Green Car Congress||
Power-To-X: Sunfire reports successful test run of co-electrolysis system of >500 hours; e-Crude demo targeted
Sunfire GmbH reports the successful start-up and test run (> 500 hours) of a high-temperature co-electrolysis system at its Dresden site, beginning in November 2018. SUNFIRE-SYNLINK—a co-electrolyzer based on solid oxide cell (SOC) technology—enables the highly efficient production (a projected ~80% efficiency on an industrial scale) of synthesis gas in a single step using water, CO2 and green electricity.
Co-electrolysis reduces H2O and CO2 simultaneously; this significantly reduces the investment and operating costs for Power-to-X projects such as e-Crude and e-fuels.
Sunfire achieved the technological breakthrough within the framework of the Kopernikus project Power-to-X (03SFK2Q0), funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), in conjunction with the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT).
The successfully running co-electrolysis plant (10 kilowatts DC, up to 4 Nm³/h synthesis gas) will be delivered to Karlsruhe in the next few weeks, where it will be combined with technologies from Climeworks (Direct Air Capture), INERATEC (Fischer-Tropsch Synthesis) and KIT (Hydrocracking) in a container to produce a self-sufficient facility.
The aim is to demonstrate the integrated production of e-Crude, a synthetic crude oil substitute, by the end of August 2019—the first in a 2-step process of this magnitude made possible by co-electrolysis.
Furthermore, on 1 January, Sunfire began the process of scaling-up the high-temperature co-electrolysis process to an industrial scale—initially with an input power of 150 kilowatts (DC)—as part of the “SynLink” project (03EIV031A) funded by the Federal Ministry of Economics and Energy.
This multipliable co-electrolysis module is to be used by Nordic Blue Crude, the Norwegian project partner. The first commercial plant is to be built there and will produce 10 million liters or 8,000 tonnes of the synthetic crude oil substitute e-Crude annually on the basis of 20 megawatts of input power.
Background: high temperature co-electrolysis. In previous power-to-liquids processes, two separate process steps were used to break water vapor down into its components—hydrogen and oxygen (electrolysis)—and to turn carbon dioxide into carbon monoxide (reverse water-gas-shift reaction).
With Sunfire’s co-electrolysis, hydrogen and carbon monoxide can be recovered in a single process step, significantly improving the efficiency of the overall process and lowering investment (CAPEX) and operating costs (OPEX).
In addition, the single-stage SUNFIRE-SYNLINK technology noticeably reduces the amount of space required.
The global demand for electrolysis technologies to produce green, renewable hydrogen is estimated at more than 3,000 gigawatts. Furthermore, many sectors, such as long-distance road transport, air or sea transport, require alternatives to fossil diesel and kerosene, which e-fuels can provide, thanks to their excellent transportability through existing infrastructures.
In addition to the production of fuels, synthesis gas attracts customers from a wide range of industries, such as the chemical industry, plastics production or the cosmetics sector.
Sunfire recently acquired a new lead investor and technology partner in Paul Wurth, a leading global mechanical and plant engineering company for the metals industry. The investment round, which involved former investors, yielded an additional €25 million in capital. Sunfire will use the money to implement commercial multi-megawatt electrolysis and Power-to-X projects.
Yun Zheng, Jianchen Wang, Bo Yu, Wenqiang Zhang, Jing Chen, Jinli Qiao and Jiujun Zhang (2017) “A review of high temperature co-electrolysis of H2O and CO2 to produce sustainable fuels using solid oxide electrolysis cells (SOECs): advanced materials and technology,” Chemical Society Reviews doi: 10.1039/C6CS00403B
|2019/1/16 11:00||Green Car Congress||
Ford, Huayou Cobalt, IBM, LG Chem, RCS Global launch blockchain pilot to address concerns in strategic mineral supply chains; cobalt to start
Ford Motor Company, Huayou Cobalt, IBM, LG Chem and RCS Global will use blockchain technology to trace and validate ethically sourced minerals in an effort to support human rights and environmental protection while helping infuse more transparency into global mineral supply chains.
The group, which includes participants at each major stage of the supply chain from mine to end-user, will begin with a pilot focused on cobalt and explore the creation of an open, industrywide blockchain platform that could ultimately be used to trace and validate a range of minerals used in consumer products.
We remain committed to transparency across our global supply chain. By collaborating with other leading industries in this network, our intent is to use state-of-the-art technology to ensure materials produced for our vehicles will help meet our commitment to protecting human rights and the environment.
—Lisa Drake, vice president, global purchasing and powertrain operations, Ford Motor Company
Cobalt is in high demand for its use in lithium-ion batteries, which power a wide range of products such as laptops, mobile devices and electric vehicles. Morgan Stanley expects cobalt demand to multiply eightfold by 2026, especially for its use in electric vehicles and consumer devices. The typical electric car battery requires up to 20 pounds of cobalt and a standard laptop requires around one ounce of the mineral.
The blockchain pilot is already underway and seeks to demonstrate how materials in the supply chain are responsibly produced, traded and processed.
For this pilot based on a simulated sourcing scenario, Cobalt produced at Huayou’s industrial mine site in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) will be traced through the supply chain as it travels from mine and smelter to LG Chem’s cathode plant and battery plant in South Korea, and finally into a Ford plant in the United States.
An immutable audit trail will be created on the blockchain, which will include corresponding data to provide evidence of the cobalt production from mine to end manufacturer.
Participants in the network will be validated against responsible sourcing standards developed by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
Traditionally, miners, smelters and consumer brands rely on third-party audits to establish compliance with generally accepted industry standards. Coupled with these assessments, blockchain technology offers a network of validated participants and immutable data that can be seen by all permissioned network participants in real time. Blockchain can also be used to help network participants address their compliance requirements.
While the initial focus is on large-scale miners (LSMs), an important objective of the group is to help increase transparency in artisanal and small-scale mining (ASMs) and enable these operators to sell their raw materials in the global market, while they meet their internationally ratified responsibility requirements.
The network can help enable ASM operators to partner with due diligence data providers and, ultimately, join a blockchain-based network of validated participants. The pilot will also explore the use of incentives or financial benefits for ASMs and their local communities impacted by mining.
Built on the IBM Blockchain Platform and powered by the Linux Foundation’s Hyperledger Fabric, the platform is designed to be adopted across industry.
Hyperledger Fabric is a blockchain framework implementation and one of the Hyperledger projects hosted by The Linux Foundation. Intended as a foundation for developing applications or solutions with a modular architecture, Hyperledger Fabric allows components, such as consensus and membership services, to be plug-and-play. Hyperledger Fabric leverages container technology to host smart contracts called “chaincode” that comprise the application logic of the system. Hyperledger Fabric was initially contributed by Digital Asset and IBM, as a result of the first hackathon.
The IBM Blockchain Platform is built on Hyperledger Fabric’s open architecture. The Blockchain-as-a-Service platform unlocks opportunity in a hardened, security-rich, production-ready environment, including 24x7x365 IBM support.
The solution is built to allow interested parties of all sizes and roles in the supply chain easy access, including original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) across the automotive, electronics, aerospace and defense industries and their supply chain partners such as mining companies and battery manufacturers. Supply chain networks will be encouraged to join this open, industrywide network to trace and validate minerals upon successful completion of the pilot.
Work is expected to be extended beyond cobalt into other battery metals and raw materials, including minerals such as tantalum, tin, tungsten and gold, which are sometimes called conflict minerals, as well as rare earths. Focus industries for the solution include automotive, aerospace and defense, and consumer electronics. There are plans for a governance board representing members across these industries, to help further ensure the platform’s growth, functionality and commitment to democratic principles.
The pilot is expected to be completed mid-year 2019.
MineHub blockchain project. Separately, mining technology company MineHub Technologies announced a collaboration to use blockchain technology to help improve operational efficiencies, logistics and financing and reduce costs in the high-value mineral concentrates supply chain—from mine to end buyer.
Goldcorp Inc., ING Bank, Kutcho Copper Corp., Ocean Partners USA Inc. and Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. are working with MineHub to build the new mining supply chain solution on top of the IBM Blockchain Platform.
The $1.8-trillion global mining and metals market has traditionally suffered from inefficiencies due to manual, paper-based processes and a lack of transparency between supply chain participants. Blockchain technology helps address this by providing a shared ledger to create a single, real time view of transactions and data across the supply chain that can be seen by all permissioned participants. Each of the participating companies represent key areas of the supply chain from mining, streaming, trade and finance.
The first use case will be built on the MineHub platform and will manage concentrate from Goldcorp’s Penasquito Mine in Mexico throughout its path to market. When ore is mined, the mining company will upload data, including sustainability and ethical practices, allowing independent verification from regulators to end users as required.
When materials are loaded for transport, the MineHub platform can record each transaction and allow permissioned parties to view and reconcile information throughout its journey. Smart contracts for supply chain processes such as trade finance, streaming and royalty contracts will be used by companies such as Wheaton Precious Metals and other institutions who provide credit facilities such as ING bank.
The MineHub supply chain platform is built on the cloud-based IBM Blockchain Platform, powered by the Linux Foundation’s Hyperledger Fabric. MineHub plans to expand the collaboration to additional members across the mining industry to encourage innovation and new applications using the technology.
|2019/1/16 10:30||Green Car Congress||
First application of ZF’s AxTrax AVE electric portal axle in a fuel cell configuration; bus by ADL
British bus manufacturer Alexander Dennis Ltd. (ADL) is expanding its product line, adding a double-decker model powered by a fuel cell drive. This new model is also equipped with ZF’s AxTrax AVE electric drive axle. ZF also provides additional hardware and software solutions for optimum performance. An initial prototype is now operating at high efficiency in field testing.
ZF’s AxTrax AVE electric drive axle drives low-floor buses up to a maximum axle load of 13,000 kilograms. The electric motors integrated into the wheel heads have a total output of 250 kilowatts.
The bus, designed by ADL, is based on ADL’s Enviro400 product line. This configuration comprises a secure system that converts hydrogen into electricity, which, in turn, drives two electric wheel-hub motors in the electric portal axle.
ADL spent two years developing this hydrogen-driven double-decker bus with ZF selected as a partner from the beginning. During field testing, the prototype operated along actual bus routes in several cities throughout the United Kingdom.
In addition to the AxTrax AVE, ZF also provided the inverter, the EST 54 electronic control unit and the appropriate control software. In this complete system, the company aligned performance, efficiency and the service life of the drive while reducing test and homologation costs for ADL.
The British manufacturer has already presented the prototype of the new fuel cell double-decker to the public as well as several fleet operators.
ZF introduced the AxTrax AVE in 2012. The electric drive axle can be used in a wide array of applications as it can not only be operated in the fuel cell configuration, but also as hybrid or purely electrically driven with lithium-ion batteries.
In addition to the excellent drive performance—totaling 250 kW up to a maximum axle load of 13,000 kilograms—the compact design is also advantageous for packaging considerations.
Since neither a conventional unit nor a universally jointed shaft is necessary for transmitting power, manufacturers now have more freedom to configure the passenger compartment to their design preferences. They can add seating and standing room, for example, or provide for step-less entry and exit or a completely flat passageway.
|2019/1/16 10:00||Green Car Congress||
Mcity ABC test concept to assess driverless vehicle safety
Mcity at the University of Michigan has outlined a test track-based concept for evaluating the safety of highly automated vehicles before they’re tested on public roads that could emerge as a model for a voluntary standard for safety testing.
The project comes after two highly publicized fatalities last year stoked consumer fears about the safety of driverless vehicles and slowed development of the technologies that have the potential to save lives, conserve energy and expand accessibility to transportation.
The Mcity ABC Test concept would create an independent safety assessment for highly automated vehicles. It would be a key element in a three-pronged approach to HAV testing, along with simulation and on-road evaluation. Mcity is a public-private partnership led by U-M to accelerate advanced mobility vehicles and technologies.
Highly automated vehicles must be developed in a responsible way to fully realize their promise as a useful tool that will benefit society. The Mcity ABC Test is an approach that can help rebuild public trust and accelerate the development of these potentially life-changing vehicles.
—Mcity Director Huei Peng, the Roger L. McCarthy Professor of Mechanical Engineering at U-M
The crash of an Uber Level-4 automated vehicle prototype in March 2018 in Arizona killed a woman as she was crossing a street, when the car’s sensors failed to detect her. A Level-4 vehicle can drive itself without human intervention.
Five days later, a man was killed on a California highway when the Level-2 automated Tesla car he was driving using Tesla’s “Autopilot” highway assist system failed to notice the driver’s inattention and did not turn off or disable the technology. Instead, the car crashed into a roadside barrier and caught fire. In a Level-2 vehicle, the driver is expected to pay attention at all times and take over driving when necessary.
Recent surveys by groups including JD Power found that as many as half or more of US consumers are concerned about the safety of driverless vehicles.
Mcity ABC Test. The Mcity ABC Test is a three-part procedure that includes:
Accelerated evaluation covering the driving scenarios responsible for the most common motor vehicle crashes;
Behavior competence testing to ensure the automated vehicles demonstrate they can handle the majority of driving scenarios; and
Corner cases, or test situations that push the limits of these highly advanced automated vehicles.
Accelerated evaluation concentrates on the most common risky driving situations. Behavior competence puts vehicles through a set of scenarios that correspond to major motor vehicle crash frequency.
Drawing from a variety of sources, Mcity compiled a list of 50 such scenarios, of which 35 were chosen for near-term focus, including 16 scenarios for low-speed, path-following Level-4 vehicles.
Corner-case testing focuses on situations that test the limits of automated vehicle performance and technology.
Mcity researchers are working on executing the Mcity ABC Test, beginning with three accelerated evaluation behaviors, and the 16 behavior competence scenarios for low-speed Level-4 vehicles, such as the driverless shuttles Mcity is operating on U-M’s North Campus. Mcity will pursue funding support needed to prove the Mcity ABC Test concept.
Researchers are developing the ABC test concept using the Mcity Test Facility, U-M’s controlled, real-world environment for testing connected and automated vehicles. The ABC test could be scaled for larger test facilities as well, such as the American Center for Mobility in Ypsilanti Township, Michigan. U-M is a founding partner of ACM.